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. 3.19.08: Next for the Economy: The Greatest Bull Run in History? Home Page **Ongoing Article**
California Real Estate and Economy: Riverside County - San Diego County
(3.19.08 ORIGINAL ARTICLE: Please see UPDATES BELOW)
Original Article 3.19.2008. Bear Stearns stock plummeted 3.14.08, and had to be bailed out by the FED and rival JP Morgan. One would expect people lined up at their local banks; strained, anxious looks on their faces as they wait impatiently to clear out their accounts. Massive fear and panic in the streets, utter chaos as trillions are withdrawn from the banks... Oh wait, that didn't happen.
It hasn't happened simply because we don't really have a choice. The American banking system is the most trustworthy in the world (for Americans at least), and we have to function in society, go to work, and pay our bills. It's just not practical to keep cash out of a bank, mainly for security reasons, and Americans these days cling to the idea of security.
Have to think the other brokerage houses have their share of troubles too, as they all got caught with their hands in the cookie jar. They created investment equities that didn't have any real equity, so now they are held honest. As the credit crisis weighs in on our very faith in the system, we are forced to stay in it. It may be the ultimate survival mechanism of the financial system: The simple fact that there are no viable alternatives.
Does all this set up the greatest stock market bull run in American history? There are some indications to think that. In the stock market, we are witnessing a high degree of both buying and selling, i.e. volatility. This means the market is looking for stability. However, bearish sentiments have shifted to bullish over the past week. With the fall of Bear Stearns, as the 'sacrificial lamb', and all the FED counter recessionary measures that have occurred, I wouldn't short the stock market below DOW 11,000: In fact, it may be time to start shopping for deals in stocks.
There is simply no place else for all this new money to go. Eventually one can predict that the FED liquidity programs will become an 'over compensation effect'; and there will be too much money in the system. Combine this with lower prices on oil and commodities (which could happen as the stock market bulls upward), and we are looking at some real pent up appreciation in the stock market. Given that there's plenty of volatility, the run up could be fast and hard, we could be at 13,000 in a short time. There is downside risk as well; but this may be the time, with the DOW at around 12,000, to get some positions in. Primarily because this deflationary trend will not last; the FED wants inflation (See Article: No Recession, but Deflation?). And you can be assured that they will get what they want.
With inflation, there will be counter intuitive elements in the economy (See Article: The Counter Intuitive Market Force ). Commodities may dip further as money reenters the stock market. We may see the stock market return to its highs, even though we are skating a recession. The market may show similar resilience as it did after 9/11: In fact, the same economic conditions exist as the post 9/11 bull run. A lot will obviously depend on corporate earnings, but we have seen some mixed results, most taking hits but some beating expectations. The recession in and of itself may already be priced in.
Sadly however, the housing market may not recover completely within the next few years, because prices (at least in California) have not truly corrected. The speculative elements of the housing bull run will not re-enter the market: Simply because they got burned as they realized after all the hype that you buy a home to live in it, not as an investment (See Articles: The Counter Intuitive Market Force: But Housing is the Exception, The 5% Income Rule). This is not to say other markets have not recovered: Beaten down markets where sellers acknowledge the market conditions and are selling homes should be considered the 'recovery markets'.
With FED liquidity actions, there are reasons to believe the banking crisis is over. Additionally, there is reason to believe that the crisis may stop at housing and not spread to commercial, as some have speculated. Commercial property is income producing, for the most part: Commercial buildings won't be effected by this bubble because they financially support themselves (asset class).
Firstly, banks usually have low loan to values on commercial properties, even though they make superior investments to housing. Banks don't have to consider many consumer and political elements in commercial investments, as they do in financing homes for families. Secondly, business is for the most part doing fine, buildings are generally leased, and usually landlords need only lower their rates a bit to lease buildings. No one is going to walk away from a commercial property at 50% loan to value ratio. Without the spread into commercial properties, the bank crisis may have nowhere else to go.
-comment-UPDATES:
Update: 6.5.08: Oil up over $5 a barrel today. European banks say inflation fears may bring rate hikes overseas. So how is inflation a good thing? it ain't deflation...
Stocks rallied over 200 points today. Typically, over the past few months, stocks have had an inverse relationship to oil prices: as oil went up; stocks went down. Only this week have we seen the pattern break. The market rallied initially on the stimulus package and its impact on retail: specifically, Wall Mart and Costco. These were the logical beneficiaries, as people sought to get the most for their money. However, this really only accounts for half of today's rally. I think there was a combination of panic and short covering going on, along with a fear of leaving too much cash on the sidelines. 'All cash' holders have been sitting comfortably on the sidelines for the past few weeks; watching the stock market bleed down and real estate continue its implosion; But the days of asset deflation may be reaching their end...
Why? because with respect to stocks, inflation means those dollars on hold are losing value as assets appreciate. So there is a natural surge to get into the market while it's still at its lows... The last thing anyone want to be is "late" to a bull run.
Why is it possible for real estate to recover? Well I remain extremely bearish on real estate; but something happened after the close today that gives me a slight bit of pause. The FED approved the acquisition of Countrywide by Bank of America.
After its acquisition of MBNA, Bank of America has a significant percentage of the consumer credit card industry. With Countrywide, any defaults would surely see a delay in processing, and the lenders position was extremely weak. Conversely, with Bank of America holding the note, the delay will cease and there becomes a threat of immediately losing unsecured credit. Therefore, people that can actually afford to pay their 'upside down' mortgages must continue doing so.. or risk losing their credit cards. So now, basically the same bank that has your mortgage will have your credit card debt...are you going to walk away from your losing mortgage, when you have one or two $30,000 unsecured lines of credit with BAC that remain unused?
No. You are going to suck it up and pay. Conclusion? This is actually good for the overall housing and mortgage market; it makes people stay with their loser home mortgages, if they can. Not exactly the best thing for the consumer on the street, but it may be best for the economy, as it puts a 'bottom' or 'stop' to the level of foreclosures to people that are actually behind and really cant meet the payments. Speculators that still have good credit and are carrying under water mortgages will be forced to honor them; or lose other lines of credit with Bank of America.
Overall: its bullish for the housing market that this happens.
This all leads me to conclude today that the era of asset deflation may be at its close; combined with an odd era of inflation without excess liquidity.
Updated 6.02.08: Market's showed a nice degree of stabilization this last week, ending May 29th '08. Gains were seen primarily in technology and retail, where commodities and oil had pullbacks. Financials still have not recovered, and sentiment towards them remains "wary".
Unfortunately, the oil rally pressure on stocks is not going away anytime soon; probably not until the presidential election. The damage of the Bush oil rally is doing far, far more damage to the economy than tax hikes; therefore I think a democrat may be better for stocks than McCain. The fact is, something needs to be done at the highest levels to curb the speculative networks surrounding oil prices. Based on supply demand principles, prices should be at $90 a barrel, or lower. That being said, the market may already have priced in $150 oil, with a downside range of about -300 to -500 points; meaning DOW at 12,100 to 12,300 at $150 oil. The $150 oil impact may at least be 'visible' to where we can see how bad things might get in the stock market.
This is the type of limited downside many investors have sought for months in the financials: but this particular bottom remains elusive. The street doesn't like uncertainty; which may explain why the financials still have no grasp of a foundation yet, where the markets can seemingly cope with the thought of $150 oil prices...go figure. No matter what, if oil does rally to $150, it will surely stunt any major broad market stock rally; so investors will need to be far more selective than just playing the trends. Should oil be held at under $135, or even just stabilize, we will see a major stock market rally. The pent up appreciation is more evident now than ever; money waiting on the sidelines to enter stocks.
Reiterating what I said before, the stock market is the only attractive investment vehicle out there today IMHO (See Articles: So what do we do now? Bearish on Housing,. Bullish on Stocks). I remain very bullish on technology and select online retail. I will pick up silver on the major dips; this is the only commodity I have an interest in if prices drop. An interesting market force is that oil and technology have run inverse to each other: yet technology and oil don't seem immediately related economically. My theory was that technology would be a buffer against high oil prices; and I still believe this, despite the seemingly inverse relationship the two have had over the past few weeks. Anyway, best of luck out there and we'll see what happens!
5.25.08: Market's plummeted this week, closing below 12,500. This may indicate that my previous analysis a a new valuation at 12,800-13,000 was wrong: but it really depend on what happens this week of 5.25.08. We may see 12,300 again: I will go on record here and predict a hard bottom at DOW 12,035. This being said, if your not in market right now, i would start shopping for good value stocks beaten down by the oil rally: Then again at 12,300 for buy in's and 12,000. There will be real deals in stocks if it hits these lows again (See Article: So what do we do now? Bearish on Housing,. Bullish on Stocks). The stock market is the only attractive investment vehicle out there today.
I remain extremely bullish on tech: especially now that overall market sentiment remains bearish, and dollar weakness remains, despite some strengthening over the past month. This means where tech was showing nice gains and benefiting from the weak dollar internationally (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG), this trend should continue as before. Tech is not immediately dependent on fuel, and its consumer base can satisfy its compulsions on the internet: so I will be looking for entries into online retail, like SAKS, EBAY and AMZN if the market continues lower. I have chased the financials bottom for some time: I will not buy on dips: sentiment towards financials overall is HOLD. I am also still bearish on oil and commodities. Anyway, best of luck out there and we'll see what happens!
Updated 5.23.08 The stock market this past week is like that abandoned Christmas tree on the side of the road: Once loved, now trashed. Oil has helped keep all recoveries in check, and led us to a real bear run. Hard to imagine returning to DOW 12,300, which were the prices before corporate earning indicated stability and recessionary fears were greater. Perhaps the market is pricing in an international downturn now, not sure why the market would speculate we are worse off than Feb March.
We are apparently returning to the feb-march bearishness that marked the most recent run up to just above 13,000. If we approach the 12,300 level, the question will be "where is the next bottom?" Knowing already that I am bullish on stocks, I think there is too much bearish sentiment now, but a rally may not occur until summer in anticipation of November political certainty. I am not going to say "I was wrong" about stocks yet; I don't believe the market is reflecting true valuations at this time.
Also have to think that somewhere behind the scenes, George Bushes oil networks are "getting it in while they can" here, until Bush is finally kicked out of office. Truth is, high oil prices are doing far, far more damage to economic recovery than any threat of tax increases on the wealthy. Therefore, a democrat will be better for the country, and the markets.
Updated 5.19.08 Today the stock market reminded me of Las Vegas: Glitter, lights, broads, booze...you think your a winner, then they take it all away. Such a nice warm rally in the earlier hours of the day, stopped short and dropped hard to finish at a mere 41 and change in the green. Irritating how the market still can't seem to hold big gains, still extreme volatility. Its almost like a hedge fund conspiracy.... that at a set time of the day, they all sell off. Today it was around 1:30 ET or so, everything tanked.
5.17.08: Amidst record oil prices reaching 128 a barrel, stocks managed some gains over the past week, with significant volatility. The volatility at the 12,800 to 13,000 range may be indicative of a new valuation tier, whereas before this was occurring at 12,300. The resilience of the market shows the significant amount of money on the sidelines, toe dipping back into equities. With rates so low, this money is not going into fixed income, and simultaneously money is gradually departing the commodities markets with the strengthening dollar. With any weakness in oil, expect major rallies in the stock market, as there has been an inverse relationship between the two. Even continued oil strength couldn't lock in stock market losses, as we closed close to even 5.16.08 after being down most the day.
Thanks to some "irresponsible" Investment house predictions of oil reaching 141 per barrel, the speculation on oil prices is expected to continue. This will further keep any stock market rally in check; but the corrections that seem to come immediately after gains (volatility) should be considered part of a normal, healthy market. There remains pent up appreciation in the markets, even with the many concerns out there: including housing, the over leveraged consumer, the financial crisis, inflation, and oil prices. Even with all these negative issues, the market is well aware of these problems. Amazingly, all this may be already priced into the market. Corporate earnings beats may also be priced in as well, along with the bad.
UPDATE 5.17.08: Oil is crashing our rally party this week. It just hit a new high at over 126 a barrel. The dollar has continued to gain strength, and commodities are down. This can only mean continued speculation: Probably not just greedy wall street hedge funds, but the middle east, China, and our own government. Our government needs to short oil aggressively, for the benefit of our economy. The Senate did decide to stop stockpiling our own US oil reserves to help bring down prices on 5.13.08. We cannot allow oil speculation to ruin the fragile American economic recovery! Oil pushing over 126 on 5.16.08.
5.11.08 We are seeing those counter intuitive market forces again: Oil prices rising, while the dollar gains strength. Economists have historically considered the two to have a negative correlation; not apparent here. Commodities did not necessarily rally, yet we saw deflation in the stock markets and continued housing weakness (See Articles: The Counter Intuitive Market). We are apparently returning to the feb-march bearishness that marked the most recent run up to just above 13,000. If we see new bottoms, or approach the 12,300 level on the DOW, the question will be "where is the next double bottom?" The financials need only a small hint of good news (even extremely bad news!) to get a hard rally. Intl companies may only have small weakness for the close of the year: even retail had some gains. Have to assume the primary driver behind the record oil prices is pure speculation, in the face of the stronger dollar. The biggest swings that could occur for the week 5.12.08 will be a sudden fast drop in oil prices (not expecting a huge run up) and a run up in financials (not expecting a huge downturn). Tech should hold but we haven't seen the rally as expected: I always assumed tech was the safety play; but it looks like oil and cash is what the trend is now.
5.12.08 predictions: I am predicting the DOW will not go below the 12,500 this week; and the high will be that 13,050 base; -250/+250. Expect continued drops on Monday: with possible cracks forming in financials and bottom indicators. With continued oil record highs I am liking (with selective entries) online grocery sites etc like EBAY, AMZN, and SVU. entries mid /late week. Still bullish on tech: selective retail like WMT and online sales growth for apparel. If DOW break significantly lower than the 12,500 base and closes below 12,500: we may be right back where we started: 12,300. I will reenter at 12,300, at levels below 12,000; firm until we know where this market is going. See more wall street analysis:
Here are my predictions from the 5.5.08 wall street week. I was wrong on sentiment, and missed the downside by 103 points (DOW down 303 for week, predicted max down of 200). I did predict the big drop on friday, but that was too little too late, and not as heavy as I thought. Retail was better than expected, but was not reflected in the stock prices. financials were volatile, and weak as predicted. tech was volatile, and weak.
Week of 5.5.08 Stock market predictions. Sentiment: Bullish DOW +300/-200.
(week of 5.5.08): Tech: hi volatility, big caps trending up: only true global growth area not effected by inflation/oil prices. Financials: currently up on recovery speculation: hi volatility, to trend down. Retail (e.g. TGT, BBY) trend up on stim package: low volatility. Commodities: hi volatility-down. Start: 13,058.20. Worst low: 12,850. Best High: 13,350. Last general predictions 4.19.08 were accurate, but one week late.
Week of 5.5.08: Stock market predictions were made 5.4.08. Predicted Sentiment: Bullish. DOW +300/-200. Started Monday DOW 13,058. Prediction on sentiment was wrong; Sentiment shifted on Monday with oil holding firm at record highs: was Bearish all week. DOW drop was over predicted negative DOW 12,745 close. -103 over the -200 max predicted for the week. Articles
Week Closing 5.09.08: Market "only" down 120 points: revised prediction on 5.8.08 was drop of 200 to 300. Expect continued drops on Monday: with possible cracks forming in financials and bottom indicators. With continued oil record highs I am liking (with selective entries) online grocery sites etc like EBAY, AMZN, and SVU. entries mid /late week. Still bullish on tech: selective retail like WMT and online sales growth for apparel. If oil prices start showing decline or falling below 120 this week: I may jump on DUG for short term play. If oil prices start going down, I will like the online grocery sites less. If DOW break significantly lower than the 12,500 base and closes below 12,500: we may be right back where we started: 12,300. I will reenter at 12,300, at levels below 12,000; firm until we know where this market is going.
Thought of the week: Have to say it is a shame our government cannot save its own economy by intervening on the speculation surrounding oil prices.
UPDATE 5.3.08: It took 2 weeks for my 13,000 DOW prediction on 4.19.08 to come to pass, yet it did (initially predicted 3.19 in the above article). We also saw my other predictions come to fruition, at least in a small 'trend starting' way: commodities down, dollar up. BUT there was an immediate 'reversal' of this very bullish trend on Friday, 5.1.08; with oil and commodities recovering, yet the dollar still strong and stocks up again. Conclusion? short covering in commodities: a bullish sign. I expect us to still see an approach to DOW 13,200, possibly 13,500. at 13,500 or thereabouts, look for a pullback to the new 13,000 base.
I am still bullish on tech; and really ONLY tech: MSFT said "No YHOO deal": general sentiment is that MSFT will rally and YHOO plummet; will be interesting to watch. Big cap tech currently the only reliable international growth area not effected by gas prices or inflation; but note it has gone up lately. Hard to say how Inflationary pressures will effect tech; probably to lesser degree than other exposure. Also have a neutral sentiment to retail; so will be looking for entries there.
Big cap financials recovery? its being priced in by the street; something of a danger signal. I am putting small etf positions in now, but this is on pure speculation, in case we see another financials rally like 4.30.08. Would still like to see the write downs diminish before committing; there is still no real proof of bank recovery. If financials rally this week, its time to get out for awhile and prepare for the price correction. One may consider some retail, like TGT (target) around 53, which will certainly benefit from the stimulus package: even old SBUX around 16.5 (starbucks) beaten down to lows never seen before, may benefit. Walmart is a bit high now; many things priced in already.
I am still very, very bearish on local regional banks that depend on deposits and real estate loans in the local markets: we may in fact see some threats of bankruptcy coming year end: especially here in California. Depositors are pulling their money out and moving it to larger banks and investment houses. Any and all loans made in the last few years are sitting at 100% ltv's. profits are way down, if any. Big cap financials, like USB and BAC, have shown substantial price recovery in the last week, purely based on speculation that this financial mess is over: I say 'caveat emptor'. We may see a correction back here, even for the big caps.
How will this weeks elections effect the market (5.6.08)? look for a rally if hillary stay in it: some bearish sentiments with obama.
UPDATE:
UPDATE 4.19.08: So we had a nice rally in the markets to bring the DOW up over 12,800. If you have followed these articles, you would see how stock market sentiment had gradually shifted over the past few months from extremely bearish in early February, to neutral in late march, and now bullish in mid April.
I am now convinced the places to be are companies with large international exposure with little or no dependence on fuel prices, like technology. Also, many financial news guru's are touting global infrastructure stocks. I'm going to predict for the coming week of 4.21.08 a small, cautious, then building upturn as we witness a re-entry into the market, and we will cross 13,000. Commodities should go down, including oil, and the dollar strengthening a bit.
It may be time to load up on big cap tech, and pick up something like GE now while its still at around 32.50 for a long term hold. Being that the recession may be milder than expected, many top name U.S. brands have good entries now, at their lows with bad news priced in. My logic is, if a company makes money and has reasonable growth potential, and is at it's 52 week low, its better than a 2.5% CD.
I continue to be bearish on inflated commodity prices (including oil), financials, and housing. I still don't see a real estate recovery because of the financials mess. Real estate valuations are dependent on flexible financing: with less flexibility in financing, the more questionable real estate values can be. Once the financials recover, then real estate will have hit its bottom...and not until then. Why tie yourself down with a real estate investment in this market: when it will be a liability to you, and not easily liquid? This sentiment may change; predictably when the banks get their act together and financing becomes easy again. Will this happen soon? Who knows.
I would suggest before you make any real estate investment in California, you analyze the most recent Q1 results from the states regional banks. They have come in mixed, dependent on exposure. Some have shown recovery, but others still have major problems. Community banks are earning less than they have in many years. This all means they will increase their risk management, and make loans harder to get locally. There will be less qualified buyers to meet this 'stricter' criteria, and more damaged credit reports. As stated before, the threat of 3 or 4 year old fixed rate 20% mortgages going delinquent is very real: people would rather walk away than continuing paying on a house worth less than the loan.
Thus we have a vicious circle: Tighter lending - less qualified buyers- less speculation- lower prices - more foreclosures - tighter lending. The current sentiment for California real estate is "Hold. Do Not Buy Yet." The chance will come, as the banks are at least showing some recovery - but the "when" is a gamble because of the added risk of 'blue chip' loan defaults.
I'm bullish on stocks still; I think it's clear sailing up to the low 13,000's at least. I will do a re-analysis when we hit just under 13,200, and again at just under 13,500. Don't see much news coming that could stop the GOOG et. al. induced bull run 4.17.08. Will need to watch closely, and read between the lines (See Article: True Market Analysis, or Self Interest? ). Stocks are readily liquid, flexible, easy to borrow against (margin), and the 'dummy fees' like commissions can be minimal if you do your own trading online. I expect YHOO to beat estimates next week: although this stock is a gamble, but MSFT wants it bad enough to pay retail for it.
Stay far, far away from investing in anything financials related: too many unknowns and trying to chase a banks bottom stock price is a recipe for disaster. That being said, have to think we are closer to the banking bottoms than ever. Good news is that financials (as discussed before in these articles and predicted in the UCLA report) may be the brunt of the recession; while other economic areas remain very healthy. Even though the market runs up or down in breadth, it is unwise to generalize, as many people do. Don't use a butter knife when you need a scalpel.
If a democrat gets elected to the white house, I will be expecting a dramatic reduction in oil prices. Could be wrong, but have to think the oil prices today are "government supported" and a democrat will look at things 100% differently. As a result, in November post election (democrat elected) I will look at companies like UPS, fed ex, and other oil sensitive stocks. Not until then, as we can expect oil prices to remain propped up.
McCain will be a continuation of the current economic trend, which is not all bad, but we have to get those oil prices down significantly for the consumer economy to recover. That is what the government should be focusing on.
It is ridiculous that we gained administrative control of Iraq, and we are paying record gas prices. What the hell are we doing? Or, in shorthand, WTF!1? Frankly, 'bringing democracy to Iraq' is not a justification for war; not by a long shot. Ideological wars are losers. If we are there to build our own oil reserves and defend our country, it makes sense... at least in an economic viewpoint.
Part of the original sell on the war was that Iraq would pay for it. I expect that in stealth this is what is happening, and our government is wisely propping up the oil prices, so that our government benefits. If this is NOT the case, and our government is not benefiting from these prices by selling the Iraqi oil we acquire, then I weep for our pathetically incompetent management of this war, and the resources we've wasted on it.
Comment on 4.13.08 Update Predictions: Well, those corporate earning have been mixed, but many have been beating expectations, not coming in below as predicted. Big global companies like Coke, GOOG, IBM Nike, Wall Mart coming in above projected earnings. Tech for the most part doing much better than expected. I was right about stocks, the market rallied since the predictions. But I am looking wrong on the 11,500 downturn prediction, this entry may not come, but the over 13,000 prediction is looking on target. You could probably get in the market now and be sitting on green arrows for the next couple weeks: after that, who really knows? But the leaning is currently bullish, up to 13,200 to 13,500. How deep will the rally go? good question.
UPDATE:
UPDATE 4.13.08. Have to think there is a huge commodities bubble now. The herd of money went from tech in the early 00's, then to real estate, and now has overloaded commodities. We have inflation and deflation running simultaneously. This is an unsustainable trend, one of these has to give. The inflation is occurring in raw goods, oil, grain, and precious metals; and a significant percentage of this must be speculation. The fed with its actions are stimulating growth, and they want inflationary pressures. They have lowered rates aggressively to achieve this.
Conclusion has to be that the deflationary trend in assets is temporary; except for housing, which is in most cases a liability. Inflation is here to stay. Be on the lookout for the commodities bubble to burst as inflation becomes more apparent (See Article: The Counter Intuitive Market Force). Also best we can expect in housing is a flat recovery over a long period of time. Real estate, specifically housing, has not bottomed, and won't for at least a year.
Stocks remain the best place to be, although bearish ultra short term. CD rates have filtered out, and now are getting below 3%. Bank CD's are not attractive. Best to keep cash readily available for stock market entries as the market corrects with corporate earnings coming in below expectations. I am predicting we may see the DOW as low as 11,500 just before a summer run to the low 13,000's...a real opportunity in stocks when it hits the low.
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**ARTICLES** Most recent listed last
. Q1-Feb 10 '08: - The Perfect Storm of American Economic Downfall Q2- '08: So what do we do now? . .. Q1-Feb 21 '08:- The Counter Intuitive Market Force: But Housing is the Exception Q2- '08: Analysis of CA Bank Earnings . ... Q1-Feb 21 '08:- The 5% Income Rule Q2- '08: Riverside-San Bernardino tops the list... . ... Q1-Feb 21 '08:- A Compelling Argument for Alternative Investments Q2-'08: Bank of America & Countrywide: A signal of a housing bottom? .. Q1-Feb 26 '08: True Market Analysis, or Self Interest? Q2 '08:- Oil and war speculation . Q1- '08: No Recession, but Deflation? . 3.17.08: Next for the Economy: The Greatest Bull Run in History? Q2- '08: The Schizophrenic FED Gambit .. Q2- '08: Bearish on Housing, Bullish on Stocks
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